經濟學人: 臺灣在全球經濟風暴中表現最糟

很有意思的文章，他只是陳述各方看法，至於那些說法是不是真的那麼的有意義，就是另一回事了。比如信用貿易緊縮，真的有造成衝擊嗎？

感覺不管怎麼樣，倒楣的還是終端消費者，多花錢薪水又不會漲。嘖嘖...

Taiwan's economy
Mirror, mirror on the wall

臺灣的經濟狀況
魔鏡啊！魔鏡

Feb 12th 2009 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

The ugliest economy of them all?

哪個是世界上最難看的經濟體？

WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.

哪個經濟體在這波全球性不景氣中受創最深？經濟學人每週都會在刊物封底與網站上發佈針對 55 個國家的追蹤狀況，以工業製造的狀況來看，臺灣所受到的衝擊是最大的。去年 12 月的出口相較於前一年同月下跌了 32% 左右，就整個第四季來看亦是大幅下滑，僅為前一年同期的 62% 左右。截至二月 18 日為止，對於 GDP 的預估仍為衰退。

Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.

臺灣是世界最依賴出口的經濟體之一，替西方世界的消費者製造很多高科技的小東西，也因此嚴重的受到全球需求減少的衝擊。今年一月的出口金額相較去年同月減少了 44% 左右，銀行緊縮信用貿易額度加劇了這次的出口銳減，同樣的理由也部份的解釋了同期進口衰退達 57% 的原因。我們可以預期未來貿易額度放鬆時出口將因此稍微改善，但臺灣的競爭對手已開始利用匯率來蠶食臺灣的外銷訂單，自 2008 年初以來，新臺幣對韓圜已經升值達 40% 以上。

Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.

過去一年來，對中國的出口減少了 59% 以上，衰退速度是對美國出口減少幅度的兩倍左右。臺灣銷售到中國的產品以電子零組件為主 (約佔總出口額的四分之一)，因此對中國出口總值大幅受到中國廠商減少庫存的影響，臺灣的電子業正面臨前所未有的寒冬。花旗銀行在臺北的經濟學家鄭貞茂指出，全平面螢幕與半導體等臺灣的主力出口產品其實在全球金融危機之前就已有供給過剩的現象。他認為，全球最大的半導體代工廠臺灣積體電路公司目前僅以大約 35% 的產能利用率在營運。

Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker. Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.

出口的下滑接著會影響到一般大眾的開銷，失業率在十二月已達到 5%，為六年來的最高點。實際的狀況可能更糟，因為臺灣廠商多半會撐到農曆年後才開始解雇員工。實質工資在過去一年來也減少了 5%，許多公司更要求員工放無薪假。在 12 月的零售通路銷售額相較於前一年的同期，減少了約 11% 左右。

Even before the financial crisis, household spending had seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the island’s moneyed managerial class, have moved to China to run factories there. Several economists are now forecasting that Taiwan’s GDP will contract by 3% or more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in Taiwan’s history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.

在金融危機之前，臺灣的一般家庭開銷的成長率就已經是東亞主要經濟體中最弱的一個。其中一個原因是，不少有能力消費的人並不在臺灣。在過去八年來，有大約一百萬名台商搬到中國並在中國設立或監督工廠營運，這些移出的台商是臺灣資產階級的主要份子。許多經濟學家預測今年臺灣的 GDP 將會下滑 3% 或更多，這將會是臺灣有史以來最大幅度的衰退。目前，里昂證券的預測是最悲觀的，他們認為在 2009 年臺灣的 GDP 約將下滑 11% 左右。

To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending, the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical about whether this will produce much new spending. According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.

為了振興經濟，中央銀行自去年九月以來已經降息六次，目前的利率是 1.5% 左右。政府也計畫投入約等同於 3% GDP 的資金，要透過投資基礎建設、對消費者的宣導以及減稅等措施來刺激經濟。為了增加消費，政府發給每個國民價值新台幣 $3,600 元 (折合美金約 $106 元) 的消費卷，但許多經濟學家對消費卷的政策能帶出多少新的消費抱持懷疑。根據臺灣經濟研究院的經濟學家陳淼表示，在日本曾實施類似的現金發放政策，結果，在發放對象中僅有約 30% 的人做出比原本計畫還要多的消費。至於在臺灣，一些初步數據看起來還蠻樂觀的，百貨公司與超市在春節期間的業績相較於 2008 年同期，成長了大約 10-20% 左右。

In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the economy. For example, says Mr. Chen, more direct flights between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based businessmen came home every quarter instead of every six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now, however, Taiwan’s frightful economic news is more likely to encourage households to save rather than spend.

陳淼進一步表示，長期而言，更緊密的與中國合作將會使經濟獲得改善。比如，更多的直航班機應該是有幫助的。如果台商因此能每三個月回台一次而非六個月，那麼將可以大幅改善疲弱的消費。不過，以目前臺灣嚇人的經濟情勢，恐怕並不能鼓勵大眾消費，而是讓人傾向於將錢存起來。